Buyer Beware: The Aftermath of the Russell Wilson Deal

With Russell Wilson’s 4-year $86.7 million contract extension, the monetary future of the NFL’s quarterbacks has resolutely sharpened into focus. The deal comes as a bit of a discount to Seattle. Since it’s an extension, this year, the Seahawks will pay a minuscule $1.5 million for Wilson before his deal takes effect next season, essentially making the contract a 5-year deal. Seattle recognizes the window to win Super Bowls for this team may be 4-5 years, so they locked up their leader’s future, making Russell Wilson the 2nd highest paid quarterback in the league, after Aaron Rodgers, on a per-year basis. The Seahawks’ front office either believes Wilson can lead them to back to the Super Bowl, or they took one look at the other quarterbacks available in free agency and decided to pay up, realizing Wilson was their best option.

Regardless, Russell Wilson now is being paid like a top-shelf, franchise quarterback, and he will be expected to perform like a top-shelf, franchise quarterback. The two-time Pro-Bowler’s numbers would argue that he already is an elite player, winning more games in his first three years than any quarterback in NFL history, and engineering 15 fourth-quarter comebacks since he was drafted in 2012, the most over that span.

He is supported by the best defense, and arguably the best running back in the league. But consider before Wilson, the Seahawks’ record was 7-9. Since then, they have averaged 12 wins per season, and that 5-win difference is apparently worth $21.9 million dollars a year. Whatever Russell does, it pushes the right buttons, turning a talented team into perhaps the NFL’s next great dynasty.

So while the Seahawks' fans rejoice and celebrate a franchise’s prudent investment, another team, another city, let’s loose an agonizing groan of despair.

Andrew Luck’s rookie contract is fulfilled at the end of 2015. He is expected to negotiate for an new contract next offseason. Nothing unusual for a player to table contract discussions, but in this case, it may cost the Colts millions.

A 2012 draftee himself, Luck has been even more dynamic than Wilson, statistically edging out the freshly signed Seattle star by throwing for 3,007 more yards and 14 more touchdowns. Luck has, however, thrown 17 more interceptions in the same time span, so he is not without his flaws.

What Luck does that Wilson does not do is carry his team, at times, seemingly single-handedly. Wilson was gifted Seattle’s fantastic running game and defense. Luck pulled from the waste basket the worst team in the league, and turned them into a perennial playoff contender which is predicted to compete this year in the Super Bowl in only Luck’s fourth season. He has been lauded as one of the game’s best quarterbacks, regardless of age, winning respect and acclaim from his peers and front offices around the NFL. Based on the NFL Network’s “Top 100” and ESPN’s recent poll of NFL personnel, Luck is in the top 3 quarterbacks of today’s game.

Luck will earn just $3,404,727 next year. Russell Wilson, a fine player in his own right, was just guaranteed $21.9 million. I can hear Indianapolis’ agonizing groan of despair from here.

But that guaranteed money is what makes Wilson’s contract unique. 68.5% of his total money is already in his pocket, trailing only Matthew Stafford’s lucrative deal at 78.3%. Cam Newton, who recently signed a $100 million contact is guaranteed around 58.7% of his deal.

This crop of contracts from successful, young quarterbacks sets the stage for Andrew Luck, perhaps the best of them all, to receive the most lucrative deal in NFL history. He is set to command north of $25 million per year compared to Wilson’s $21.9 million per year and Aaron Rodger’s $22 million per year. Say Luck receives, on the high end, a 6-year deal. That would be close to $150 million at $25 million per year.

This is where things get scary. 68.5% guaranteed? The same amount as Russell’s contract? $102,750,000 fully guaranteed. I repeat: $102,750,000 fully guaranteed. That’s monstrous! And as absurd as that sounds, it may not be as outrageous as we think given the market price quarterbacks are going for today.

Now, that is a little absurd, right Colts' fans? Of course it is. Indianapolis management would never do anything like that, right? Unfortunately, with Wilson’s deal today, they may have been backed into a corner they can’t escape.

Say the contract is significantly less, with Luck commanding, say, $23 million over 5 years. 68.5% guaranteed of $115 million is still $78.7 million, fully guaranteed. That’s extremely expensive, and perhaps dangerous, for a franchise.

Which is why I feel comfortable enough telling you that this is the Colts’ last year to win the Super Bowl in the Andrew Luck era. Their team is not talented or deep enough to sustain or support a contract of that magnitude. The Seahawks? Their roster checks the boxes that point to sustained future success. The Packers? Check. The Panthers, Lions, Bengals, Ravens, Steelers? Check, check, check, check, and check. These teams’ rosters are sufficiently stocked with enough talent to survive even without their quarterbacks. They have little need to add major pieces in free agency, and are in win-now mode. They can sustain their success because their rosters are loaded. History says weak teams, like the one Andrew Luck is playing for, cannot sustain success after their quarterback signs a mega-deal like the one Luck is in line for at the end of this upcoming season.

This history is why the Bears, Falcons, Saints, and 49ers have struggled. It is why the Patriots, the winningest franchise in the last 15 years, has not. The Bears’, Falcons’, Saints’, and 49ers’ quarterbacks all signed expensive, $100 million-plus deals with their teams who possess a relatively weak roster. The teams’ have been financially constricted ever since, and last year they finished 25th, 24th, 19th, and 17th place respectively, with the 49er’s projected to do even worse this season after key personnel losses across the board.

The Patriots, meanwhile, paid their quarterback, you may have heard of him, Tom Brady, $9 million of his 3 year, $27 million contract, with just 29.6% guaranteed. They won the Super Bowl. The year before that, Wilson led the Seahawks to a championship making $526,217.

So do yourself a favor Indianapolis, cut Luck, let the Jaguars or the Raiders have him. Build your team up, find a cheaper alternative, and win a title. Sounds easy enough, right? The Colts should keep those statistics in mind next summer. In the mean time, my advice? Buyer beware.