Rose Bowl Preview

Rose Bowl Preview: Winston, Seminoles Roll through Semifinal

The Oregon Ducks and Florida State Seminoles square off on New Year’s Day at 5:00 EST in this college football season’s edition of The Rose Bowl. Let’s take a look at who has the flush in the match-up.

The eye caching storylines revolve around the play of FSU quarterback Jameis Winston and Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota. Mariota directs Oregon’s dominant offense ranking 2nd in the nation in yardage and 5th in points per game. The senior excels at accurately distributing the ball in Mark Helfrich’s efficient, up-temp offense. Winston has not lost a game at the collegiate level, and brings the on-field moxie and big-game experience to lead a talented FSU team. He has a knack for playing his best when his team needs him the most. We’ll take an in depth look next week at how the two stack up against each other. For now, here are the biggest factors to watch for the game.

Florida State’s Offensive Line: Florida State’s ability to run the ball effectively should be the Ducks’ primary cause for concern. FSU’s offensive line outweighs the athletic d-line of Oregon by 27 lbs, with the average weight of the Seminoles offensive line hovering at 323 lbs. The last thing Oregon wants to see is freshman running back Dalvin Cook galloping through their secondary because FSU’s mammoth offensive linemen are pushing the line of scrimmage into the linebackers’ laps. If the Seminoles’ running game can flash their inconsistent dominance resembling their win vs NC State, the Ducks will be left with two disappointing zeros: zero losses on Jameis Winston’s belt, and zero National Championships for Oregon.

Oregon’s Secondary: Losing All-American cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu will be a challenge for the Duck’s to cope with and a matchup Jimbo Fisher and the Florida State coaching staff needs to exploit. Safeties Erick Dargan and Reggie Daniels are more than viable veteran options to manage the loss, but red-shirt freshman Chris Seisay will be thrust into the fold in the first college football playoff game in history. Seisay has the length (6’1” 187 lbs) and athleticism to shadow FSU wide receiver Rashad Greene along the boundary. Oregon has full confidence in Seisay, who has played well against teams who have ranked in the Top 25. Says Ekpre-Olomu, “I told him [Seisay] be ready. You never know what will happen. When was a freshman I just got put in the game in a big game and you have to be ready to perform.” The college football world waits with baited breath to see whether or not the secondary can limit Winston’s receiving options for all four quarters.

FSU linebackers: Florida State’s Reggie Northrup, DeMarcus Walker, and Terrance Smith face their biggest challenge New Year’s Day. The will need to be nearly perfect to contain Marcus Mariota, and running backs Royce Freeman and Thomas Tyner in the running game which averages 4.9 yards per rushing attempt. While the Ducks average 237 yards on the ground per game, the Seminoles are ranked contrarily a meager 56th in the nation versus the run. The fast paced attack has truly been dominant with Mariota at the helm week-in and week-out.

Additionally, they ‘backers will be scrambling to cover the spaces Oregon routinely floods with receivers when the Ducks choose to pass. Oregon’s offensive scheme tries to utilize the entire width of the field as a product of Chip Kelly’s tenure at the university. Junior middle linebacker Reggie Northrup’s brain might be as scrambled as my morning eggs trying to set his defensive front in an effort to match and counter Oregon’s personnel and multiple formation changes. Yeah, I wouldn’t want to do that either.

Verdict: Oregon is due for a championship, but not this year. I want to pick Oregon, but the trends over the past few years has yielded a result I am unwilling to bet against. The teams deemed tougher with grit and a standard of winning have prevailed in big moments. FSU is a tougher team along the offensive and defensive lines. They are led by an elite collegiate quarterback who hasn’t lost a game since his senior year in high school on November 25, 2011. But perhaps the biggest reason for picking FSU, is their propensity to win the 4th quarter and come from behind. Oregon likely will jump out ahead early if the past is anything to hang your hat on, but ultimately, it will be Florida state’s defense that will clamp down, and allow Jameis Winston to mount a comeback late.

Final Score: FSU 27, Oregon 20

Chris Venzon