Down South

Down South

This is the second installment of Chris Venzon’s “Compass Preview” of the 2014 season, culminating with a Super Bowl Prediction, awards, and oh, so much more. He’ll take you to all four corners of the NFL and tell you who will be heading into the playoffs after Week 17. We picked the winner of all 256 games this season and ranked each team accordingly. So take a seat and stay a while: remember you heard it first from the Couchside Report.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFC

Atlanta Falcons

Projected Record: 9-7 Projected Div. Seed: 4th

In most situations, nine wins would get a team into the playoffs as a wildcard. But this is a unique situation. I find it unlikely the Falcons repeat their dismal 2014 performance. However, the Atlanta teams that dominated the late 2000’s jumped ship with Michael Turner. Atlanta is going to struggle to run the ball with an already injured offensive line and an outdated Steven Jackson. Don’t get me wrong, I love Steven Jackson. But if the Falcons expect to line up and dominate the running game, setting up those oh-so-sweet play action passes Mike Smith dials up, the soon to be 11 year veteran won’t be enough to execute game to game. They also play three teams in their own division who I believe will have top 10 units versus the run in 2014. If Atlanta can establish the run on a consistent basis, expect the Dirty Birds to find a playoff spot. If not, this situation looks grim.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: Jacquizz Rodgers and Steven Jackson give the offense enough juice to set up deep bombs to now-healthy superstar wide receiver Julio Jones. Watch the offensive line however to see how they cope with losing left tackle Sam Baker for the year with an ACL injury.

• 10-6

Rock Bottom: The defensive plays below its average expectations and neither sides of the ball can control the line of scrimmage.

• 5-11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Record: 10-6 Projected Div. Seed: 2nd

New coach, New quarterback, new life? A rejuvenated Buccaneers are trending upwards. After shedding the blemished Schiano regime, head coach Lovie Smith is aiming to steer this pirate ship in the right direction. But can they do it? I say maybe. Good news Bucs’ fans: this defense is legit. After a few flashy free agent signings, the Bucs now have playmakers at all three levels of defense. Gerald McCoy and Levonte David form this generation’s Sapp and Brooks (both Hall of Famers). Expect them to thrive in Lovie’s Tampa Two scheme which takes advantage of their athleticism and aggressiveness. David is the secret superstar that no longer is much of a secret. He can roam all 191,188 square feet of the gridiron with gazelle-like speed for a linebacker. Don’t be surprised if this defense vaults Tampa Bay to the top. Also, do not expect them to go 1-5 in their division games, they have the talent to beat Carolina twice.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Doug Martin form the Marshall, Jeffery, Forte trio for newly minted quarterback Josh McCown to play with at his uber-efficient level from last season.

• 12-4

Rock Bottom: McCown shows why he has been a career backup, and a jumbled offensive line struggles to compete with top tier pass rushers. The Bucs remember they are the Bucs and fall apart after Week 5.

• 7-9

Carolina Panthers

Projected Record: 9-7 Projected Div. Seed: 3rd

”No one has repeated as NFC South Champions. The Panthers have never had back-to-back winning seasons. They lost all of their receivers from a year ago. Cam Newton is hurt.” But yet the Panthers will go 9-7. Coach of the Year. Great defense. Enough said. They will not have enough fire power to duel the Saints, Eagles or Broncos for a win, but they do not need it. Last year, Carolina Panthers’ receivers combined to catch 10.12 passes per game. By comparison, Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker collectively averaged 15.71 catches per game for the Broncos. If Kelvin Benjamin and Co. can manage to replace 10 catches per game, the team won’t miss a beat offensively. The major concern is offensive line play. Four new starters will play Tampa Bay Week 1. If they fail to adequately guard Newton’s blind side, it won’t matter who’s catching passes.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: The Panthers’ interior line play becomes a strength, not a weakness. Riverboat Ron keeps the winning formula, and Luke Kuechly doesn’t tear his ACL.

• 10-6

Rock Bottom: SuperCam’s ankle eliminates his dynamic running ability and the Panthers’ offense doesn’t gel until it’s too late (post-week 8).

• 6-10

Extra Sauce: Carolina’s .733 winning percentage in December since Cam Newton’s arrival is tops in the NFC South.

New Orleans Saints

Projected Record: 11-5 Projected Div. Seed: 1st

With Sean Payton calling the plays and Drew Brees throwing the bacon, this team will be a favorite to win in nearly every game they play this season. What will push them over the top is a healthy offensive line and vastly improved secondary. Anyone who watched the Super Bowl last year had a sip of the proverbial NFL future when it comes to defense. As the NFL “evolved” into a passing league, the defenses haven’t remained stagnant. In the future, we will see safety tandems, who once where considered to be a liability, as true jack-of-all-trades playmakers. Kenny Vaccaro and freshly inked free safety Jairus Byrd have the talent to dominate in Seahawkian fashion. Rob Ryan will deploy the versatile Vaccaro and rangy Byrd in a similar way as Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are in Seattle. If the Saints’ defense can limit passing attacks, you can book them a ticket to the NFC Championship game, at least.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: Unheralded defensive lineman Cameron Jordan plays at a Pro Bowl level an Brandin Cooks, proves to be the Darren Sproles/Desean Jackson combo everyone says he can be.

• 13-3

Rock Bottom: The offensive line gives up 40+ sacks and Drew Brees misses significant injury time.

• 9-7

AFC

Indianapolis Colts

Projected Record: 12-4 Projected Div. Seed: 1st

An easy schedule featuring the entirety of the AFC South twice certainly helps out the Colts this year. There is one shining star in the pit of dismay that is the AFC South. His name is Andrew Luck. I go against the notion that Luck is already a top 5 quarterback. His superior performances in the fourth quarters of games sometimes overshadow his poor play in the previous quarters. He can’t have a comeback win if the Colts aren’t down. But even this is nit-picking. Luck is the best young quarterback in the league by a mile because he excels where young quarterbacks usually struggle. His footwork, football awareness and progression reading is, quite simply, the best we have seen since Manning, especially for his age. I believe Andrew Luck can lead his team into the playoffs single-handedly, but once he gets there, he will need his team to double whatever effort they think they are putting forth to avoid a third straight early exit in the divisional round.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: Enough about Luck. The rest of the team plays at above average level and Trent Richardson remembers he was a first round pick (top three I might add) and rushes for 1,000 yards.

• 13-3

Rock Bottom: An average defense is exposed by the likes of Brady, Manning, Rodgers and the like to the tune of “Worst Defense in NFL.” The Colts split games with the Jags and Texans. Robert Mathis can’t generate any pass rush coming off a suspension which considerably slows him down and effects his conditioning.

• 9-7

Tennessee Titans

Projected Record: 2-14 Projected Div. Seed: 4th

The Titans brutal away schedule and lack of any considerable star power puts Tennessee in the running for the top spot in the 2015 Draft. While their overall schedule isn’t as bad as it could be, I predict a lot of very close games that they are unable to finish off. The ball won’t bounce their way in a lot of games. However, they do have a great coach in Ken Whisenhunt, and an absolutely elite offensive line. The Titans can avoid the abyss by playing fundamentally sound football and eliminating the plagues of turnovers and inopportune penalties I have forecasted to doom them from the outset. For the fans’ sake, I hope the inconsistent Jake Locker can avoid his trend of consistent injuries, and an underrated line backing corps drags Tennessee into contention for a wildcard. But all I can do is hope.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kids: In what amounts to a make or break year for starting quarterback Jake Locker, he throws 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions while the special teams, led by Dexter McCluster, are just special enough to add some sizzle to an otherwise lack luster scoring effort.

• 8-8

Rock Bottom: 2-14 is the worst the Titans could be. Avoiding 2-14 will come down to the crucial moments in the 4th quarter. If the Titans get a broken down defense or Bad Jake Locker, a long season could be staring them in the face.

Extra Sauce: Ken Whisenhunt never had a record worse than 5-11 as an offensive coordinator or head coach.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Record: 5-11 Projected Div. Seed: 3rd

Make no bones about it, the Jags are getting better. In fact they were better from the moment they let Blaine Gabbert walk to the west coast. But with budding talent at the wide receiver and defensive back positions, the 2014 Jacksonville squad will be indeed watchable. Unfortunately for head coach Gus Bradley, he has the difficult decision to make between two quarterbacks. Fans will holler for the young, high draft pick Blake Bortles, who played exceptionally well in the preseason. But if the Jags haven’t learned their lesson about rushing a young quarterback into the NFL (a la Gabbert), then they deserve to be the worst team in the league, again. Outside of Luke Joeckel, this offensive line will be the downfall of an up and coming team. So while fans may have to suffer one or so more seasons of losing, the Jaguars are on the up-tick, and they have a good chance to surprise a lot of people this year.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: Bortles proves to be too good in practice to shelve for an entire season, and proceeds to win Rookie of the Year behind a stout safety play, and a above average o-line play. Running back Tony Gerhart pretends he’s back at Stanford and rushes for 12 touchdowns.

• 7-9

Rock Bottom: The offensive and defensive lines get dominated in division games verses arguably the best offensive and defensive lines in football (Tennessee, Houston), and they go 0-6 verse AFC South opponents.

• 3-13

Houston Texans

Projected Record: 6-10 Projected Div. Seed: 2nd

It’s hard to remember, but the Texans are one year removed from being one of the best teams in the AFC. But gone is Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub, and in comes Bill O’Brian and whoever the hell is starting at quarterback. If I was the Texans’ GM, I would tank the season for FSU star Jameis Winston, but that’s why I am not in NFL management. Bottom line: this defense is going to cause problems for people. The only major uncertainty comes from the quarterback position. Can Ryan “Fitzmagic” guide his most talented team to a winning record, or will holes in at the offensive skilled positions overshadow the team’s potential? The big headline that will catch everyone’s eye this year is #1 pick Jadeveon Clowney, who, with JJ Watt, potentially forms the most devastating young defensive line combo since Reggie White and Jerome Brown. I’d like to take a wait and see policy on Houston this year, but if I had to guess, playoffs aren’t in the equation with the big question mark at quarterback.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: Arian Foster stays healthy and somebody stays the starting QB for longer than 7 weeks in a row. Defense congeals into an effective unit, not just 3 standout parts.

• 8-8

Rock Bottom: Quarterback play dooms the Texans early and they slip into a midseason funk, losing 6 in a row for lack of confidence, not talent.