Up North, eh?

Up North eh?

This is the first installment of Chris Venzon’s “Compass Preview” of the 2014 season, culminating with a Super Bowl Prediction, awards, and oh, so much more. He’ll take you to all four corners of the NFL and tell you who will be heading into the playoffs after Week 17. We picked the winner of all 256 games this season and ranked each team accordingly. So take a seat and stay a while: remember you heard it first from the Couchside Report.

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NFC

Minnesota Vikings:

Projected Record: 6-10 Projected Div. Seed: 4th

This unit will be the winner of the NFC North—after Aaron Rodgers retires. Their front 7 lacks the depth and pass rushing ability. Not to mention 3 of the best offenses in the NFL are in their own division. While Adrian Peterson’s pass catching numbers should increase thanks to Norv Turner’s dump-off heavy passing scheme, his presence alone will unfortunately not be enough to escape a brutal schedule after the bye week. Look for Teddy “The Glove” Bridgewater to remain on the bench until at least Week 11. If the Minnesota Vikings start the rookie, they officially will have closed the candy shop on their 2014 season, whether Bridgewater is the best rookie quarterback in this past class or not. This team will contend in two years behind wealth of first round picks (5 in past 2 drafts) and consistent coaching. But that’s in two years.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: A tenacious outside line-backer group is versatile enough to lift the defense to a top-15 finish, while Bridgewater replaces Cassel in Week 4 and is better than advertised, contending for the rookie of the year.

• 9-7

Rock Bottom: The defense repeats last year’s dismal performance, and Cordarrelle Patterson develops migraines and is shipped to the Seahawks (too soon?).

• 3-13

Detroit Lions:

Projected Record: 8-8 Projected Div. Seed: 3rd

Whether the Detroit ship sails or capsizes rests solely on Matthew Stafford’s ability to captain it through possibly the toughest division in football. And while Stafford is firmly entrenched as the Lion’s starter, it’s not hard to picture why the former #1 overall pick could find himself on the hot seat. For the first time in his career he (Stafford) has a legitimate number two receiver (Golden Tate), not to mention his other toys (Reggie Bush, Eric Ebron, Joique Bell, and, oh yeah, Calvin Johnson). New head coach Jim Caldwell is an immediate upgrade from Jim Schwartz, but how well defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham can hide a mediocre-at-best secondary will really show the prowess of an improved coaching staff. It seems as if all the pieces are in place for the golden armed Stafford. Bottom line: the Lions have a team worthy of a playoff spot, but can their quarterback actually get them their? I say no.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: Eric Ebron and Golden Tate draw enough coverage away from Megatron so Stafford and Johnson can celebrate in the end zone together 9+ times. The front seven evolves into the dominant force it perennially is projected to be, Suh doesn’t get suspended and Quinn Glover does his best Ed Reed impersonation.

• 11-5

Rock Bottom: Stafford starts throwing all side-winder again and the secondary struggles in the four most important games of the year: Green Bay 2x. Chicago 2x.

• 5-11

Chicago Bears:

Projected record: 9-7 Projected Div. Seed: 2nd

Have you bought into the hype? Between Jay Cutler MVP talks, “Greatest Show Up North” offensive projections, and Marc Trestman being hailed as the second coming of Jesus, people have the Bears winning the division this year. And why not? Their offense matches the best units in the league, a quick glance at a depth chart indicates that Chicago looks like a winner for the long haul (in fantasy football too). But if anything is an indicator of unfulfilled expectations, its hype. Also, in case anyone forgot the Super Bowl last year, or the playoffs for that matter, defense still wins championships, and this “championship team” still has no defense. Until proven otherwise, I don’t believe signing a few aging veterans along and unsteady defense will be enough to compete with the Pack, the Hawks, or any playoff team worth its salt. The upside? This offense is elite enough to give them a chance anyway.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: There is a chance we could be talking about this team in late January. They remind me a lot of the 2008 Arizona Cardinals. If Jay Cutler sheds Grumpy Jay and ala-ca-zams his way into the Conference championship, I won’t be the least bit surprised. Imagine seeing “Cutler: Super Bowl MVP” in the headlines Feb. 3rd. Chicago fans hope there is some Cutler magic yet.

• 11-5

Rock Bottom: The bears are two injuries away from a 7-9 record. If offensive tackles Kyle Long and Jermond Bushrod go down for an extended period of time, Chicago’s tantalizing offense will struggle to achieve its potential.

• 6-10

Extra Sauce: Matt Forte will lead the NFC in total touchdowns.

Green Bay Packers:

Projected Record: 12-4 Projected Div. Seed: 1st

It is more difficult to find something wrong with the Pack than what is going right. And right now, everything is lookin’ pretty good. Aaron Rodgers is aiming to compete for some league hardware and maybe even some sterling silver by year end. The X factor whether or not Green Bay rides into the sunset as champions or fizzles out in the Divisional round is the defense’s ability to plug the run. Of late, the Packers front seven has been porous, and B.J. Raji’s injury will only handicap Dom Capers further as he looks to transform his defense from a liability to a reliability. Meaning literally the Packers only need to hold their opponents to less than 24 points per week, and Rodgers, Lacy and the gang should be able to carry this team to the Promise Land.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: Eddy Lacy scores ten rushing touchdowns and Clay Matthews remains on the field for 16 games, watch out NFC, there’s a new sheriff in town.

• 13-3

Rock Bottom: THIS GETS WORSE:

25th Def. Pts/Game 24th Def. Pass

29th Def. Rush 22nd Def. Turn Overs

• 9-7

AFC

Cleveland Browns:

Projected Record: 2-14 Projected Div. Rank

Despite the NY Times, ESPN, and every major sports pundit in the United States whipping the Cleveland fan base into a frenzy, we’re sorry, the Browns lack the talent to even compete in the AFC North, despite Johnny Manziel. Because Josh Gordon chose pot over football, the Cleveland season outlook went from grim to downright hopeless. Their schedule does them no favors, they have an unproven head coach, and there is no significant offensive weapon for Brian Hoyer to throw to outside of underrated tight end Jordan Cameron. The way Cleveland stays competitive this year is if an improved pass rush and uber-talented secondary keeps the Browns in games. Fans from there will hold out hope that Manziel’s magic can squeak out enough wins to avoid being the laughing stock of the league, again.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: There is a soft spot Cleveland’s schedule after their bye week. If Mike Pettine and Co. prudently don’t cave to the pressure to start Johnny Football after an 0-3 start, and Hoyer’s ACL holds up long enough to recapture last year’s success, Browns could remain in the loop for the first half of the season.

• 5-11

Rock Bottom: Joe Haden misses 3+ games with freak injury and Manziel is the starter after the bye week. It’s hard to go any lower than a projected 2-14 mark, but unless the NFL starts looking like the SEC, don’t expect the 2012 Heisman winner to score more than 18 touchdowns combined.

• 1-15

Extra Sauce: Maziel will start after Week 7

Pittsburgh Steelers:

Projected record: 9-7 Projected Div. Seed: 3rd

The Steelers are on an uptick. Finally, after 5 years of being profusely deemed as old and slow, Pittsburgh has three young, fast playmakers on the defensive side of the blue stripe. If Dick Lebeau can get Cameron Hayward, Jarvis Jones, and rookie Ryan Shazier to play like Pro Bowlers, this team has the potential to be special. Look for Mike Tomlin to push his team back into relevance in a critical year for Pittsburgh. Offensively, questions arise at the wide out position for everyone not named Antonio Brown, but if Le’veon Bell can live up to half of his potential, we could see a return to the mid/late-2000’s Steelers who appeared in three Super Bowls. Injuries and a rough division are holds this team back from achieving an upper-echelon record in 2014.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: A number two receiver emerges as a serviceable option, they split games with the Ravens and Bengals, and Troy Polomalu play all 16 games for only the seventh time in his 12 year career.

• 11-5

Rock Bottom: The offensive line can’t create running lanes and Ben Rothlisberger has a down year with a propensity to toss interceptions against inferior opponents.

• 7-9

The Cincinnati Bengals:

Projected Record: 11-5 Projected: 2nd

In my projected schedule, the Bengals finish 2nd to the Ravens due to a week 17 loss that puts Baltimore ahead. That’s how close they are from winning their division. This is the most talented team in the AFC, they just need to start acting like it. With little known but outstanding middle linebacker Vontaze Burfict patrolling an already imposing and improved defense, and a loaded offense with the best receiver in the league not named Calvin Johnson, Cincinnati is poised for a playoff trip for the 4th straight year. How far they go in the playoffs, and whether or not they achieve home field advantage, rests in the hands of $100 million man, Andy Dalton. If the Red Rifle can thrive in situational football (4th quarter, 2 minute, 3rd down), we could see the Bengals raising the Lombardi on Super Bowl Sunday.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: New offensive coordinator Hue Jackson puts Dalton, Bernard, and Green in positions to maximize their talent, and the questionable safety play holds up against top flight aerial attacks like the Pats and Broncos.

• 12-4

Rock Bottom: Dalton takes his money and runs, and Geno Atkins is unable to regain dominant form coming off of ACL surgery, turning the strength of the defensive line into an area of concern.

• 8-8

Baltimore Ravens:

Projected Record: 12-4 Projected Div. Seed: 1st

Easier schedule. Savvy defense. John Harbaugh. Joe Flacco. If you haven’t noticed the pattern in the last 48 years, 43 teams who won the Super Bowl had an above average-great quarterback, a good defense, and an excellent head coach. The other five teams made up for their deficiencies with either legendary defense, or brilliant coaching (notice there’s no mention of elite quarterback). That seems to be the formula for winning in the National Football League. A quarterback needs to get hot, and the defense needs to achieve a consistent level of success. The Ravens have exactly that, but they also have an easy schedule that will carry them to the #2 seed in the AFC and a first round bye. Baltimore falters if veterans prove to be slow, and running backs Ray Rice and Bernard Pollard repeat last year’s atypically dismal >3 YPC performance. Otherwise I expect the Ravens to once again make a deep playoff run.

The Big IFs

Shoot for the Stars, kid: Ray Rice runs like it’s 2011 coming off suspension, Ladarius Webb shuts down whoever Denver, New Orleans, or Indianapolis puts in the slot, and Joe Flacco forgets he’s Joe Flacco and tosses 30+ touchdowns, 8 TDs connecting with newly acquired Steve Smith.

• 13-3

Rock Bottom: Injuries tear up the playmakers on all three levels of their defense and offensive line doesn’t fulfill its promise of improvement.

• 9-7

Final Word: There is a storm brewing up north. Each North divisions have the potential to send three teams to the playoffs. Each year teams emphasize success within their own division and road games. However, in 2014, what happens on the road, in non-conference and non-division games, will determine who plays in the playoffs, and who watches them from the couch.

Chris Venzon