Fresh Take: Manning v Brady
July is not a time for football. Organized team activities have ceased, training camp begins in a month, the draft is behind us, and generally, nothing is going on in the NFL. Yet July presents much needed pause so we collectively catch our breath in preparation for another 6 month binge on the greatest sport in America. I know, I don’t like it either. With that in mind, let’s revisit the timeless classic of “who’s better than who” featuring Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Here’s why we may have been looking at the wrong things all along…:
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Ah yes, the age old debate over the two greatest quarterbacks of the 21st century. Most likely, you already have an opinion, but keep in mind: we don’t need to rely on clichés, hyperbole, and cluttered rhetoric to figure this out. If you know little on the topic, here’s what you ought to know.
Tom Brady was an unimpressive quarterback coming out of Michigan in the year 2000. Drafted 191st in the 6th round by the New England Patriots, Brady was thrust into a starting role after an injury sidelined Drew Bledsoe for the 2001 season. He proceeded to win 3 Super Bowls in the next 4 years, and has since established himself as arguably the greatest quarterback of all time. He personifies clutch play and thrives in the last minutes of the game. He has a 18-8 all-time playoff record, 5 Super Bowl appearances, 2 MVPs and 11 conference championships in 13 seasons. Not too shabby for a guy predicted to have little success in the pros.
Manning’s career has taken a slightly different path on his road to greatness. Drafted first in 1998, Manning was considered the best quarterback prospect since Hall of Famer John Elway. He struggled for a few years while surrounded by a (put nicely) less than spectacular team and coach in Jim Mora. His brilliance began to shine in the early 2000’s and he’s perennially led the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos to the playoffs. He is on pace to become the all-time statistical leader in nearly every passing category, and has dominated the regular season unlike any the game has ever seen. He’s known for legendary preparation which allows him to dissect a defense and put up big numbers during games. Before 2006, he was considered the best quarterback never to win a Super Bowl, along with Dan Marino, until he beat the Bears and solidified himself among the NFL greats. He has gone on to appear in two other Super Bowls, and has collected 5 MVP awards (best all time), 13 Pro Bowls, and the greatest statistical season to date (2013). Yet Manning seems to be defined by his shortcomings rather than exulted for his successes.
Both were injured for an entire season with Brady’s ACL tear in 2008, and Manning’s neck ailments in 2011.
The best part about the duo is they have played during the same era. Unlike Jordan vs Lebron, Pele vs Messi etc, fans have had the opportunity to watch the most successful quarterbacks of the generation literally battle side by side. So if we leveled the playing field, who’s better? Manning is the better quarterback.
There are a few reasons why Peyton edges the super Patriot here. A big reason is Bill Belichick. Manning is also a victim of hyperbole. And yes, you too Cliché have taken hold of all of us. But to fully prove this point, let’s start from the beginning.
Our system of evaluating the two players is flawed. We are comparing individuals in a sport reliant on team cooperation. We shall proceed anyway. Keep in mind this is not about Super Bowl rings, this is a team game, and contrary to what many people believe, Tom Brady has had a better TEAM. Brady has played with 2 more pro bowlers, not including kickers. Collectively Manning’s teams have finished, on average, 15th in defensive scoring and 19th in team defense. Brady’s teams have finished 8th in defensive scoring and 18th in team defense. This means that while many talking heads point to Brady’s lack of supporting talent, Manning’s team has offered him less help.
Wide receivers are a different issue. But here is where our friend hyperbole comes into play. How many more Pro Bowlers do you think have caught passes for Peyton Manning than Tom Brady? Just two. Peyton has had 7 pro bowl pass catchers, while Brady has had 5 during their respective tenures. We hear from the experts and analysts that Brady makes his receivers better. And like all great quarterbacks, Manning does too. Consider Marvin Harrison never made a Pro Bowl before Peyton’s arrival. Where is Manning’s credit? There-in lies the fault. Yes, Manning has had two higher caliber weapons, and Brady perennially works with sub-par talent, but the gap is not as wide as most people make it out to be. Brady plays for more talented teams, Manning plays with more talented pass catchers. There are 3-4 pass catchers on offense. There are 11 other men playing defense.
A deliberate point has been made to avoid statistical comparisons, rather the focus should turn to who would succeed the most on a level playing field. Things to keep in mind:
Manning has more 4th quarter comebacks than Brady, nine more in fact.
In the regular season Manning is more dominant. In cold weather, Brady has the edge.
Peyton Manning has 167 wins
Tom Brady has 143 wins
These are situations and strengths that help clearly define their ability. Statistically we may never have seen a more potent offensive weapon at quarterback in Peyton Manning; that doesn’t matter. Tom Brady has the knack for winning the most important games; that does matter. Notice there is no mention of Super Bowl rings. When comparing players, people get swept away in the wave of importance attached to their accomplishments. A Super Bowl doesn’t determine the narrative, the actual ability a player has. It effects their legacy, their lifetime footprint on the game. No one thinks Trent Dilfer was better than Dan Marino. Timmy Smith wasn’t better than Barry Sanders. That’s the point. When we try to compare the players to each other, their accomplishments, records, and statistics get in the way of how we see their overall skill level. So we can argue the impact of a Super Bowl on a player’s legacy all we want, but this is strictly a comparison of who would perform better in equal situations.
The only statistic that matters is winning games. That’s why they keep score. To date, Peyton has more wins, however, he has been in the league two more years than Brady. Only time will tell who will end up with the most victories, but it seems that Manning has been successful and dominant with less favorable circumstances.
A situation that drastically changes the playing field is coaching. Bill Belichick has cemented his legacy as a top 5 coach all-time in the NFL. Before he arrived in New England, the Patriots had never had back to back post season appearances. Upon his arrival, he took a pretty good football team and turned them into Super Bowl champions using a 6th round quarterback. He consistently is heralded as the premiere coach in football. Belichick’s system, “The Patriot way,” some call it, made Brady great. How do we know Brady didn’t make Belichick great? Easy: Belichick has, does, and will continue to have success without Tom Brady. Look at 2008 and 2001. Somehow the New England Patriots manage to put together winning squads despite losing their starting quarterbacks in the first week. Is this a coincidence? How can a team lose its most important player, whom they’ve worked with for 4-5 months leading up to the regular season, and still win double digit games? It’s the system. Or is Matt Cassel an exceptional quarterback capable of leading a mediocre team to an 11-5 record? If he was, he probably wouldn’t be backing up Christian Ponder and rookie Teddy “The Glove” Bridgewater in Minnesota. I don’t remember the 2011 Colts winning 11 games when Peyton was ruled out for the season. In fact, the Colts came in dead last, winning 2 games. The system is important.
Look even further back, to when Belichick was having success, winning games and Super Bowls with the New York Giants and the Browns. We’re not comparing coaches, so the use of Super Bowls is a legitimate resume backer. For some reason, success seems to follow the hooded Belichick. Knowing all of this, Bill Belichick will continue to have winning teams and success in the National Football League after Tom Brady retires.
How good would the Peyton/Belichick dynamic duo be had the two crossed paths on the same side? With equal circumstances, Peyton is more likely to carry a team further than Tom Brady would.
So if all things were equal (coach, team, circumstances), Peyton Manning would be able to consistently dominate the NFL better than Brady could. Brady wins in the overall legacy conversation to this point, but given a Hall of Fame coach over the course of a career, and a better defense over the course of a decade and maybe, just maybe, there wouldn’t be a question of who was the best.
Chris Venzon
